The Signal and the Noise

The Signal and the Noise PDF Book Detail Author: Nate Silver
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 1101595957
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 544

Read and Download Nate Silver book The Signal and the Noise in PDF, EPub, Mobi, Kindle online. Free book TThe Signal and the Noise. This book was released on 2012-09-27 with total page 544 pages. Book excerpt: UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

The Signal and the Noise

The Signal and the Noise PDF Book Detail Author: Nate Silver
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781524704636
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

Read and Download Nate Silver book The Signal and the Noise in PDF, EPub, Mobi, Kindle online. Free book TThe Signal and the Noise. This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Book excerpt:

The Signal and the Noise

The Signal and the Noise PDF Book Detail Author: Nate Silver
Publisher: Penguin Press
ISBN: 9780141975658
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 534

Read and Download Nate Silver book The Signal and the Noise in PDF, EPub, Mobi, Kindle online. Free book TThe Signal and the Noise. This book was released on 2013 with total page 534 pages. Book excerpt: From the financial crisis to ecological disasters, we routinely fail to foresee hugely significant events, often at great cost to society. The rise of 'big data' has the potential to help us predict the future, yet much of it is misleading and useless. Nate Silver accurately predicted the results of every state in the 2012 US election, cementing his reputation as one of our most prophetic forecasters. Here he takes us on an enthralling insider's tour of the high-stakes world of prediction, showing how we can all learn to detect the true signals amid the noise of data. The International Bestseller An Economist and The Times Book of the Year 'The Galileo of number crunchers.' Independent 'A 34-year old Delphic Oracle.' Daily Beast 'Fascinating . . .' Bryan Appleyard, Sunday Times 'Outstanding . . . fun to read . . . I was hooked' Tim Harford, Financial Times 'Is there anything Nat Silver could tell us that we wouldn't believe?' Jonathan Freedland 'The inhabitants of Westminster are speed-reading The Signal and the Noise . . . Remarkable and rewarding.' Matthew D'Ancona, Sunday Telegraph 'An outlier if we've ever soon one' New York Observer A new kind of political superstar' Observer

Summary and Analysis of The Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail but Some Don t

Summary and Analysis of The Signal and the Noise  Why So Many Predictions Fail   but Some Don t PDF Book Detail Author: Worth Books
Publisher: Open Road Media
ISBN: 1504043693
Category : Study Aids
Languages : en
Pages : 30

Read and Download Worth Books book Summary and Analysis of The Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail but Some Don t in PDF, EPub, Mobi, Kindle online. Free book TSummary and Analysis of The Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail but Some Don t. This book was released on 2017-01-10 with total page 30 pages. Book excerpt: So much to read, so little time? This brief overview of The Signal and the Noise tells you what you need to know—before or after you read Nate Silver’s book. Crafted and edited with care, Worth Books set the standard for quality and give you the tools you need to be a well-informed reader. This short summary and analysis of The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver includes: Historical context Chapter-by-chapter summaries Important quotes Fascinating trivia Glossary of terms Supporting material to enhance your understanding of the original work About The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver: Drawing on groundbreaking research, The Signal and the Noise, written by the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight.com, examines how data has been used in prediction and forecasting, and how to find the true signals—the points that indicate that something will happen—amidst noisy and distracting data. Addressing different fields of forecasting and predictions—from politics to earthquakes to poker—Silver explores the reasons why some things are easier to forecast, like the weather, while others are so difficult, such as terrorism. From one of the country’s smartest thinkers. The Signal and the Noise provides vital insights into how to think about probability and predictions on the economy, climate change, sports, and other subjects that impact our lives. The summary and analysis in this ebook are intended to complement your reading experience and bring you closer to a great work of nonfiction.

Summary of Nate Silver s The Signal and the Noise by Milkyway Media

Summary of Nate Silver   s The Signal and the Noise by Milkyway Media PDF Book Detail Author: Milkyway Media
Publisher: Milkyway Media
ISBN:
Category : Study Aids
Languages : en
Pages : 38

Read and Download Milkyway Media book Summary of Nate Silver s The Signal and the Noise by Milkyway Media in PDF, EPub, Mobi, Kindle online. Free book TSummary of Nate Silver s The Signal and the Noise by Milkyway Media. This book was released on 2018-08-31 with total page 38 pages. Book excerpt: The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don’t (2012), considers the common shortcomings statisticians face when attempting to make predictions. While bad predictions can lead to setbacks and false beliefs, accurate predictions can advance scientific knowledge, government efficiency, the quality of education, and other social projects and goals… Purchase this in-depth summary to learn more.

The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes

The Signal and the Noise    in 30 Minutes PDF Book Detail Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781623150525
Category : Bayesian statistical decision theory
Languages : en
Pages : 46

Read and Download book The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes in PDF, EPub, Mobi, Kindle online. Free book TThe Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes. This book was released on 2012-11 with total page 46 pages. Book excerpt: The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes The Expert Guide to Nate Silver s Critically Acclaimed Book the 30 Minute Expert Series

The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes   The Expert Guide to Nate Silver s Critically Acclaimed Book  the 30 Minute Expert Series  PDF Book Detail Author: The 30 Minute Expert Series
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781623151218
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32

Read and Download The 30 Minute Expert Series book The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes The Expert Guide to Nate Silver s Critically Acclaimed Book the 30 Minute Expert Series in PDF, EPub, Mobi, Kindle online. Free book TThe Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes The Expert Guide to Nate Silver s Critically Acclaimed Book the 30 Minute Expert Series . This book was released on 2013-03-29 with total page 32 pages. Book excerpt: For a complete understanding of Nate Silver's Signal and the Noise, we strongly encourage you to purchase the original book titled The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't by Penguin Publishing Big data has arrived! Whether you're using that data to make a billion-dollar decision to merge two companies or to choose a team to win the World Series, how do you distinguish the signal (the truth) from the noise (our all-too-human impulse to make choices based on personal bias)? In his groundbreaking work The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver brings the complexities of statistics down to earth by using real-life examples of how we all make predictions and why those predictions are often wrong. The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes is your expert guide to Nate Silver's main thesis that our decision making is filtered through our personal assumptions and beliefs as opposed to the truth of the data at hand. This concise companion details: * Nate Silver's journey from forecasting Major League Baseball players' performance to predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections * Both praise for and critical reactions to his ideas from such noted sources as the New York Review of Books and the Wall Street Journal * Key concepts, including analyzing prediction failures, practicing Bayesian thinking, and expanding self-awareness * Key terms, such as Bayes's theorem, with easy-to-understand definitions and examples * Recommended readings and a bibliography listing additional resources analyzing Silver's work and the phenomenon of big data The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes is a timely guide to a topic that affects all our lives. From choosing stocks, to predicting wars, to making personal changes in light of climate change, The Signal and the Noise challenges both nations and individuals to make smarter choices. About the 30 Minute Expert Series Offering a concise exploration of a book's ideas, history, application, and critical reception, the 30 Minute Expert Series is designed for busy individuals interested in acquiring an in-depth understanding of seminal works. More than just a summary, the 30 Minute Expert Series offers detailed analysis, critical presentation of key ideas and their application, extensive reading lists for additional information, and a contextual understanding of the work of leading authors. Designed as a companion to the original work, the 30 Minute Expert Series enables readers to develop expert knowledge of an important work ... in 30 minutes.

Digital new deal the quest for a natural law in a digital society

Digital new deal  the quest for a natural law in a digital society PDF Book Detail Author: Riccardo Genghini
Publisher: CEDAM
ISBN: 881337187X
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 477

Read and Download Riccardo Genghini book Digital new deal the quest for a natural law in a digital society in PDF, EPub, Mobi, Kindle online. Free book TDigital new deal the quest for a natural law in a digital society. This book was released on 2021-06-08 with total page 477 pages. Book excerpt: The quest for a natural law that can be applied to a digital society may sound like an oxymoron, but it is a necessary quest if we hope to institute a “Digital New Deal”: Hence the title of this book. Today once again, mass media is disrupting society, much as radio and cinema were used to buttress totalitarianism in the 1920s … or even worse, in the 15th century, when the printing of the Bible unleashed 100 years of war, plague and instability. Things get messy when people disagree on facts rather than ideas. Natural law springs from the features of the physical world, which contains boundaries (an inside and an outside), limited resources, living individuals, objects, living animals, living plants, climate, the four elements, etc. None of this is a given in the digital world, which looks today like feudalism in a box, with (fire)walled communities run by unelected autocrats (system administrators) ruling over countless subjects, whose identities are tied to the domain of the (fire)walled community and whose rights can only be enforced by the autocratic system administrator. This dystopic reality is neither necessary nor inevitable. It is the consequence of bad technical design and inappropriate business models, which are destroying the spirit of free pluralism that enabled them to thrive in the first place. Information technology has its own ontology and “natural” rules, and we must understand them and learn to regard them as being among the founding legal principles of our free, open, pluralistic societies. Of the 12 founding digital principles addressed here, the most important may well be that we must each own and control our digital identities. In the world created by information technology, everyone and everything should possess a UID, a unique identifier. Without one, we are just helpless particles lost in a dark and hostile universe.

Analysis of Nate Silver s the Signal and the Noise by Milkyway Media

Analysis of Nate Silver s the Signal and the Noise by Milkyway Media PDF Book Detail Author: Milkyway Media
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781980639534
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 33

Read and Download Milkyway Media book Analysis of Nate Silver s the Signal and the Noise by Milkyway Media in PDF, EPub, Mobi, Kindle online. Free book TAnalysis of Nate Silver s the Signal and the Noise by Milkyway Media. This book was released on 2018-03-23 with total page 33 pages. Book excerpt: The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail -- but Some Don't (2012), considers the common shortcomings statisticians face when attempting to make predictions. While bad predictions can lead to setbacks and false beliefs, accurate predictions can advance scientific knowledge, government efficiency, the quality of education, and other social projects and goals...Purchase this in-depth analysis to learn more.

The New Behaviorism

The New Behaviorism PDF Book Detail Author: John Staddon
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1000389685
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 328

Read and Download John Staddon book The New Behaviorism in PDF, EPub, Mobi, Kindle online. Free book TThe New Behaviorism. This book was released on 2021-05-27 with total page 328 pages. Book excerpt: This ground-breaking book presents a brief history of behaviorism, along with a critical analysis of radical behaviorism, its philosophy and its applications to social issues. This third edition is much expanded and includes a new chapter on experimental method as well as longer sections on the philosophy of behaviorism. It offers experimental and theoretical examples of a new approach to behavioral science. It provides an alternative philosophical and empirical foundation for a psychology that has rather lost its way. The mission of the book is to help steer experimental psychology away from its current undisciplined indulgence in "mental life" toward the core of science, which is an economical description of nature: parsimony, explain much with little. The elementary philosophical distinction between private and public events, even biology, evolution and animal psychology are all ignored by much contemporary cognitive psychology. The failings of radical behaviorism as well as a philosophically defective cognitive psychology point to the need for a new theoretical behaviorism, which can deal with problems such as "consciousness" that have been either ignored, evaded or muddled by existing approaches. This new behaviorism provides a unified framework for the science of behavior that can be applied both to the laboratory and to broader practical issues such as law and punishment, the health-care system, and teaching.

Data Analytics

Data Analytics PDF Book Detail Author: Shuai Huang
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000372456
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 273

Read and Download Shuai Huang book Data Analytics in PDF, EPub, Mobi, Kindle online. Free book TData Analytics. This book was released on 2021-04-16 with total page 273 pages. Book excerpt: Data Analytics: A Small Data Approach is suitable for an introductory data analytics course to help students understand some main statistical learning models. It has many small datasets to guide students to work out pencil solutions of the models and then compare with results obtained from established R packages. Also, as data science practice is a process that should be told as a story, in this book there are many course materials about exploratory data analysis, residual analysis, and flowcharts to develop and validate models and data pipelines. The main models covered in this book include linear regression, logistic regression, tree models and random forests, ensemble learning, sparse learning, principal component analysis, kernel methods including the support vector machine and kernel regression, and deep learning. Each chapter introduces two or three techniques. For each technique, the book highlights the intuition and rationale first, then shows how mathematics is used to articulate the intuition and formulate the learning problem. R is used to implement the techniques on both simulated and real-world dataset. Python code is also available at the book’s website: http://dataanalyticsbook.info.

Demystifying Climate Models

Demystifying Climate Models PDF Book Detail Author: Andrew Gettelman
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3662489597
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 274

Read and Download Andrew Gettelman book Demystifying Climate Models in PDF, EPub, Mobi, Kindle online. Free book TDemystifying Climate Models. This book was released on 2016-04-09 with total page 274 pages. Book excerpt: This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.

Becoming a Data Head

Becoming a Data Head PDF Book Detail Author: Alex J. Gutman
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119741769
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 272

Read and Download Alex J. Gutman book Becoming a Data Head in PDF, EPub, Mobi, Kindle online. Free book TBecoming a Data Head. This book was released on 2021-04-13 with total page 272 pages. Book excerpt: "Turn yourself into a Data Head. You'll become a more valuable employee and make your organization more successful." Thomas H. Davenport, Research Fellow, Author of Competing on Analytics, Big Data @ Work, and The AI Advantage You’ve heard the hype around data—now get the facts. In Becoming a Data Head: How to Think, Speak, and Understand Data Science, Statistics, and Machine Learning, award-winning data scientists Alex Gutman and Jordan Goldmeier pull back the curtain on data science and give you the language and tools necessary to talk and think critically about it. You’ll learn how to: Think statistically and understand the role variation plays in your life and decision making Speak intelligently and ask the right questions about the statistics and results you encounter in the workplace Understand what’s really going on with machine learning, text analytics, deep learning, and artificial intelligence Avoid common pitfalls when working with and interpreting data Becoming a Data Head is a complete guide for data science in the workplace: covering everything from the personalities you’ll work with to the math behind the algorithms. The authors have spent years in data trenches and sought to create a fun, approachable, and eminently readable book. Anyone can become a Data Head—an active participant in data science, statistics, and machine learning. Whether you’re a business professional, engineer, executive, or aspiring data scientist, this book is for you.

God and Randomness

God and Randomness PDF Book Detail Author: Thomas R. McFaul
Publisher: Wipf and Stock Publishers
ISBN: 1532638981
Category : Religion
Languages : en
Pages : 200

Read and Download Thomas R. McFaul book God and Randomness in PDF, EPub, Mobi, Kindle online. Free book TGod and Randomness. This book was released on 2017-12-01 with total page 200 pages. Book excerpt: Most of us have experienced the impact of randomness in our lives not only as individuals but in our interactions with others as well. In God and Randomness, which is a sequel to our 2014 publication God Is Here to Stay: Science, Evolution, and Belief in God, we describe the connection between randomness and God and how this connection has permeated our universe from the start. We cover several areas that include personal stories, the micro and macro sources of world events, the origins of our cosmos and solar system, the emergence of human mindfulness and choice, major episodes of the twentieth century, the future, and the quest for fairness. In the course of examining these topics, we identify how current scientific research is consistent with our speculation of how God influences our lives in the presence of all this randomness. We conclude that the random events affecting us may originate in other dimensions that are inaccessible to us and that God is actively at work in the chaos and randomness that pervades our lives and our world.

Keeping the Republic Power and Citizenship in American Politics 6th Edition The Essentials

Keeping the Republic  Power and Citizenship in American Politics  6th Edition The Essentials PDF Book Detail Author: Christine Barbour
Publisher: CQ Press
ISBN: 1452240035
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 728

Read and Download Christine Barbour book Keeping the Republic Power and Citizenship in American Politics 6th Edition The Essentials in PDF, EPub, Mobi, Kindle online. Free book TKeeping the Republic Power and Citizenship in American Politics 6th Edition The Essentials. This book was released on 2013-01-15 with total page 728 pages. Book excerpt: Keeping the Republic′s lively discussion of ′who gets what and how′ develops studentsÆ critical thinking abilities in the intro American government course. Every section and every feature in the book has one goal in mind: to get students to think critically and be skeptical of received wisdom. Serving as a true aid to teachers, each chapter is designed to build students′ analytical abilities. By introducing them to the seminal work in the field and showing them how to employ the themes of power and citizenship, this proven text builds confidence in students who want to take an active part in their communities and governmentùto play their part in keeping the republic, and to consider the consequences of that engagement.

AI and the Project Manager

AI and the Project Manager PDF Book Detail Author: Peter Taylor
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1000464172
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 158

Read and Download Peter Taylor book AI and the Project Manager in PDF, EPub, Mobi, Kindle online. Free book TAI and the Project Manager. This book was released on 2021-10-28 with total page 158 pages. Book excerpt: Enabling project managers to adapt to the new technology of artificial intelligence, this first comprehensive book on the topic discusses how AI will reinvent the project world and allow project managers to focus on people. Studies show that by 2030, 80 percent of project management tasks, such as data collection, reporting, and predictive analysis, will be carried out by AI in a consistent and efficient manner. This book sets out to explore what this will mean for project managers around the world and equips them to embrace this technological advantage for greater project success. Filled with insights and examples from tech providers and project experts, this book is an invaluable resource for PMO leaders, change executives, project managers, programme managers, and portfolio managers. Anyone who is part of the global community of change and project leadership needs to accept and understand the fast- approaching AI technology, and this book shows how to use it to their advantage.

Changing Sociocultural Dynamics and Implications for National Security

Changing Sociocultural Dynamics and Implications for National Security PDF Book Detail Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309473772
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 86

Read and Download National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine book Changing Sociocultural Dynamics and Implications for National Security in PDF, EPub, Mobi, Kindle online. Free book TChanging Sociocultural Dynamics and Implications for National Security. This book was released on 2018-06-18 with total page 86 pages. Book excerpt: Beginning in October 2017, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine organized a set of workshops designed to gather information for the Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security. The first workshop focused on changing sociocultural dynamics and implications for national security, and this publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from this workshop.